Senin, 25 Juli 2011

The Myth of Forever 27


Oh goody, Team Skeptic has a new thingy to be skeptical about...Forever 27. This one is new to me. A couple of years back I got into the myth that celebrities die in three's and admittedly had a morbid fascination with that. Everytime a celeb died we would anxiously scan the newspapers for our trifecta. Of course it, death that is, doesn't work like that.

The Forever 27 club is dedicated to chronicling the deaths of rockstars at age 27. There is Morrison, Hendrix and now Amy Winehouse. Interestingly enuff, they are looking for a number cruncher to do some statistical  analysis to prove their theory. Howz about we debunk it instead.



"There is a social psychology phenomenon known as causal attribution. This is when a person (or society) attributes outcomes to particular causes. When there is a tragic death, such as that of a famous young person, we tend to look for a reason why it happened. We try to make sense of it. And when we can't make sense of it, we find a way for it to make sense. And when a number of famous musicians have died young, we try to find a common thread, in order to make sense of it all. So the "27 Curse" began (Huff Po)."


It is just like that myth that there is more crime when there is a full moon. Statistics have shown that there is no relation between the monthly lunar cycle and crime and yet peeps still believe that. Why. When something bad happens and there is a full moon out then people do that causal attribution thingy. They notice both so there must be a relationship, right. Wrong. 


If you just think about it skeptically, for even a second, I think you can come up with a million reasons why rockstars don't die at age 27. First of all, what about all the rockstars that are older than 27. Aren't there more of them than the ones that died. What are the chances that a rockstar that is addicted to drugs dies at 27. By age 27 that particular person probably has been doing drugs for quite some time, therefore increasing the probability of OD-ing. Lastly, they fly hella a lot more than the average person. I used to joke that when I become a rockstar I'm not going anywhere near a helicopter, that's how rockstars die. Famous people fly a lot more than us regular folks and when they do crash and die, it is all over the news. 


If it was something more interesting like rockstars that die that had Siamese cats, then I would be interested in that. Forever 27, not so much. 


* Forever 27

* Huff Po

* Famous peeps that died in aviation crashes.

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