Head For The Hills, Erff-Quake

Me schtinks an erff quakes is coming...or a fart.

Thanks SF Chron, my skeptics meter is going off. The article "Do zoo animals forecast erff-quakes" reminds me of the skeptic classic, Does the moon cause crime (or an increase in crime)? This is why skepticism is so important (so I have something to do when having my morning coffee). The claim is that right before an erff-quake happens, animals have that special animal erff-quake radar that tells them of the upcoming disaster...and they head to the hills in droves.

Back in the day in ancient Greece, 373B.C., it is said that hella snakes, centipedes and weasels fled Helice right before a huge quake. Today, Zoo personnel also claim that either, there is total calmness, or pandaemonium (that doesn't look right) right before a quake (which should set off a skeptic meter, which is it). Right before a 7.3 quake in China in 1973 it is said that snakes emerged from hibernation in sub-freezing temperatures to head for those hills that peeps keep talking about. So obviously the animal kingdom naturally has a built in seismograph, created by evolution thru natural selection just for these occasions, right. Wrong, err, maybe...let's check it out.

"I think our owners are home." "Nah bro, that's the mail-person."

Immediately I think of two thingies 1) dogs know when their owners are arriving home 2) a full moon increases crime and 3) anecdotal evidence is filled with human err (and I guess that is three things).

One of those great urban legends is that dogs know when their mommies and daddies are arriving home from work, or whatever. Dog owners go all anthropomorphic and project their human wants and feelings upon their trusted doggies. As humans we want so badly to believe that our dogs love us so much that they can recognize the sound of our vehicles, can smell us coming from a great distance, or even have dog to human telepathy that alerts them of arrival.

No. Several studies with hidden cameras have shown that yes, the dogs get excited when the owner pulls up in their car, making it appear that they anticipated the humans arrival. What the cameras also show is that the dogs get excited and go to the door when the mail-person comes to deliver the mail, a truck passes by, a squirrel climbs a tree outside, the neighborhood kids kick a ball into your yard etc....And, there is always an and, the err of anecdotal human evidence.


The relationship between the full moon and crime have been debunked time and time again. Correlation equals causation (or is it visa versa), except for when it is not. Do crimes occur during a full moon? I'll quote Sarah Palin, "You betcha." Does the moon cause an increase in crime...no frackin' way. What those super good looking, know it all, smarter than you skeptics say about the moon/crime thingy is that one only notices that when a crime occurs when there is a full moon. Crime happens all the time whether there is a full moon or not. Can we conclude the opposite with the same kind of thinking that the lack of a full moon is responsible for crime-not if ya want to be considered sane.

Humans, that's us peeps, have gone all evolve-y-n-stuffs and have learned throughout time that there are patterns and relationships in the world we live in. Observation has led to the understanding of weather patterns, the understanding of growing a seed into a plants, germ theory, etc...But just because we see a pattern does not mean that there is always a relationship.

Ya know what, I don't know if, or to what extent, animals can predict an erff-quake. Can they feel the vibrations before the actual quake comes, do they have some kind of internal pressure gauge  thingy that goes off right before the big one. I dunno. What I'am saying is that animals were heading to the hills in droves anyways, regardless of quake or not and I haven't seen enuff evidence to conclude that snakes, raccoons, or anyother animal, have the ability to predict an upcoming erff-quake.

* SF Chron article

* A science-y looking paper that....proves me wrong. Oh nozzzzz. Dogs know their owners are coming home. I just glanced at it, but it seems that dog telepathy is the reason for the ability...or dookie.